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Breaking the rules of growth: Why Shopify bans KPIs, optimizes for churn, prioritizes intuition, and builds toward a 100-year vision | Archie Abrams (VP Product, Head of Growth at Shopify)
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Breaking the rules of growth: Why Shopify bans KPIs, optimizes for churn, prioritizes intuition, and builds toward a 100-year vision | Archie Abrams (VP Product, Head of Growth at Shopify)

Shopify’s Archie Abrams on why churn matters, goal setting without metrics, the “hundred-year mindset,” and integrating sales for a product-led-growth model
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Archie Abrams is the VP of Product and Head of Growth at Shopify, where he leads a 600+ person growth org across product, design, engineering, data, ops, and growth marketing. Shopify powers over 10% of e-commerce in the United States, with $235 billion in GMV in 2023 (roughly the size of Finland’s economy). He previously led Consumer product and growth at Lyft and was at Udemy for 8 years as SVP of Product having joined the company when it was 10 people. In our conversation, we discuss:

  • Why Shopify optimizes for churn

  • Why the core product team doesn’t use metrics-based goals

  • Why they keep multi-year experiment holdouts

  • How they structure their growth team

  • The benefits of not having a CMO

  • Lessons learned about integrating sales into a product-led growth model

  • The power of discounting as a growth lever

  • Much more

Some takeaways:

  1. Shopify optimizes for getting as many new merchants as possible to start businesses, even if many of them fail. This approach works because the few successful merchants generate enough revenue to make up for the many that don’t succeed.

  2. Shopify has found that 30% to 40% of experiments that show positive short-term results have no long-term impact. Initial lifts can be misleading, and some of your “losers” might actually yield unexpected long-term value.

  3. Adopt a “hundred-year mindset” in your decision-making. Stop chasing short-term wins that feel good now but might sabotage your future. Every decision should be about building a product or service that can withstand the test of time. If it feels like a quick buck, it probably isn’t worth it.

  4. Don’t shy away from shipping experiments that may have neutral impacts. If your intuition suggests that an idea is beneficial, validate it by launching it. Just because the initial data doesn’t show a positive lift doesn’t mean it won’t create value in the future. Let the market respond, and be open to adjustments based on real user feedback.

  5. Regularly assess elements of monetary friction in your product—like trial lengths and incentive structures. Make sure these elements align with what users need to succeed, as they can greatly influence user behavior and long-term retention.

  6. Shopify’s growth team is divided into two main groups: Growth R&D (product, design, engineering, data) and Growth Marketing (paid acquisition, SEO, email, content). The company also uniquely includes customer support within the growth organization. This clarity helps teams align their goals and understand their unique contributions to the overall growth strategy.

Where to find Archie Abrams:

• X: https://x.com/archieabrams

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/archie-abrams-b6aa8b6/

In this episode, we cover:

(00:00) Archie’s background 

(02:30) Shopify’s impressive growth

(06:17) Shopify’s unique approach to churn and retention

(08:43) Monetization model and success metrics

(11:08) Long-term experimentation and metrics

(23:00) Examples of big wins that Archie’s team has shipped

(26:42) Monetary friction

(27:14) Metrics

(29:47) Shopify’s growth team structure

(33:03) Goal setting and forecasting

(37:10) Examples of long-term results within Shopify

(41:36) Shipping neutral experiments

(42:05) Building a hundred-year company

(48:04) Why Shopify doesn’t use KPIs

(51:30) Shopify’s “Get shit done” framework

(54:30) Cross-team collaboration 

(58:48) The importance of an opinionated founder 

(01:01:12) Growth and sales integration

(01:06:42) Shopify’s marketing structure

(01:08:49) Insights on discounting from Udemy

(01:11:09) Lightning round

Referenced:

• Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/

• Tobias Lütke on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobiaslutke

• Gross Merchandise Value: Calculation and Best Practices: https://www.shopify.com/retail/gross-merchandise-value

• Brian Chesky’s new playbook: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/brian-cheskys-contrarian-approach

• Glen Coates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/glcoates

• Harley Finkelstein on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/harleyf

• Udemy: https://www.udemy.com/

Scientific Advertising: https://www.amazon.com/Scientific-Advertising-Original-Claude-Hopkins/dp/1640954252

Four-Minute Mile: https://www.amazon.com/Four-Minute-Mile-Roger-Bannister/dp/1493038753/

The Sopranos on HBO: https://www.hbo.com/the-sopranos

• Suno: https://suno.com/

Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.

Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.

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